As Africa’s premier investment platform, the Africa Investment Forum (AIF), prepares for its 2025 edition, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over its future following the abrupt closure of key U.S. development agencies — a move that signals Washington’s retreat from the continent at a critical moment.
Last year’s AIF Market Days showcased Africa’s growing appeal as an investment destination, securing $29.2 billion in investment interest and attracting over 2,300 participants from 83 countries. But as its nine founding partners — including the African Development Bank (AfDB), Afreximbank, and Africa50 — met in Washington this week to strategize for an even more ambitious 2025 gathering, the sudden shuttering of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) by the U.S. government has further raised concerns about America’s long-term commitment to African economic growth.
Since its launch in 2018, the AIF has mobilized more than $225 billion in investment interest, with 22 deals already closed and 41% of financing provided by its founding partners. The forum’s success lies in its transactional approach — eschewing speeches for structured deal-making in 40+ boardrooms, backed by global financial institutions, insurers, and export credit agencies.
“We have elevated Africa. We have showcased Africa. We have changed perceptions,” said Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the AfDB and AIF Chairman. “Africa will not be developed by aid. It will be developed by investment.”
Yet, just as African leaders push for greater private-sector engagement, the U.S. has pulled back. The MCC’s closure, alongside broader cuts to USAID and other assistance programs, marks a stark reversal from past engagement, where agencies like the U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) and Prosper Africa played strategic roles in previous AIF editions, facilitating partnerships between American investors and African enterprises.
The MCC’s Sudden End: A Blow to Key Projects
The MCC, established under President George W. Bush in 2004, was a model of performance-based aid, directing $17 billion to infrastructure, energy, and governance projects worldwide. Its termination leaves critical initiatives in limbo, including:
- Côte d’Ivoire: An $850 million package for schools, roads, and energy grid upgrades.
- Senegal & Ghana: Major infrastructure and agriculture programs now at risk.
“This isn’t about inefficiency — the MCC was one of the most transparent U.S. aid agencies,” said a former MCC official, speaking anonymously. “This is a geopolitical shift.”
The U.S. retreat comes as China, Russia, Turkey, and Gulf states deepen economic ties with Africa. While the AIF’s partners remain committed — including new member BADEA (Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa) — the absence of robust U.S. engagement could weaken Western influence.
“As Africans, we must take ownership of our development,” said Samaila Zubairu, CEO of Africa Finance Corporation. But with Prosper Africa’s future uncertain and USTDA’s role shrinking, American investors may lose ground in one of the world’s fastest-growing markets.
What Next for the Africa Investment Forum?
The AIF’s partners are finalizing a long-term governance framework, set to be signed at the AfDB Annual Meetings in May. Yet, as Adesina prepares to step down in September, the forum faces a pivotal moment — will it continue thriving as Africa’s premier deal-making hub, or will U.S. disengagement dampen its momentum?
For now, the message from African leaders is clear: “The only way to be certain about the future is by creating it,” said Boitumelo Mosako, CEO of the Development Bank of Southern Africa. But as Washington steps back, the world will be watching who steps in.