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    Inside Lesaka’s Struggle to Make African Fintech Consolidation Pay

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    Lesaka Technologies has a problem that’s becoming familiar across African fintech: it can buy revenue, but it can’t buy margins.

    The Nasdaq-listed payments company, formerly known as Net1, has completed two acquisitions in the past 15 months and is waiting on regulatory approval for a third. The deals have added customers, transaction volumes, and product lines. What they haven’t added is meaningful profit.

    Financial results for the six months ending December 2025 reveal the challenge. Despite absorbing Adumo — a payments processor acquired for $73m in equity — and Recharger, a prepaid electricity metering business, Lesaka’s operating margin stands at 0.7%. Six months earlier, before the deals closed, it was 0.1%.

    The company generated $2.3m in operating income on $350m in revenue. Strip out depreciation and one-off costs, and adjusted EBITDA reached $32.9m — a 59% increase year-on-year. But that improvement reflects accounting treatment more than operational transformation. The actual cash position tells a different story: Lesaka consumed $2.0m in operating cash flow during the period, largely due to working capital requirements for its expanding lending operations.

    The Adumo equation

    Adumo was supposed to accelerate Lesaka’s merchant services business. The deal closed on 1 October 2024, bringing aboard a competitor with established relationships in South Africa’s formal and informal retail sectors.

    Lesaka issued 17.3m shares — roughly 16% dilution — as consideration. It also absorbed $8.3m in existing Adumo debt, which it immediately repaid, and recorded a $7.6m non-controlling interest for minority shareholders who retained stakes.

    The Merchant division, where Adumo now operates, generated $258.9m in revenue during the six-month period — down 4% in rand terms compared to the prior year, when Adumo contributed only three months of results. Segment-adjusted EBITDA was $18.9m, up 8% in dollar terms but just 5% in rand.

    Management attributes the revenue decline to lower prepaid airtime sales, a legacy low-margin business the company is trying to phase out. But the modest EBITDA improvement — given the incremental three months of Adumo contribution — suggests the acquisition hasn’t delivered the cost synergies or pricing power that typically justify horizontal consolidation.

    Lesaka’s merchant EBITDA margin improved from 6.5% to 7.3% year-on-year. That 0.8 percentage point gain, after spending $73m in equity and assuming $8.3m in liabilities, represents a return that would be difficult to defend in most M&A frameworks.

    The company disclosed ZAR 7.4m ($0.4m) in retrenchment costs for the Merchant division during the period — evidence that workforce integration is ongoing. It’s also midway through a brand consolidation exercise, retiring the Adumo name and folding operations under the Lesaka master brand by February 2027.

    What works: Recharger’s niche

    Recharger, acquired in March 2025, has been the clearer success. The prepaid electricity metering business now sits within Lesaka’s Enterprise division, which posted $29.6m in revenue for the half-year — up 42% — and delivered $2.7m in adjusted EBITDA compared to a $0.03m loss the prior year.

    Recharger operates 357,300 active prepaid meters, primarily in multi-tenant residential buildings where landlords install the meters and tenants purchase electricity vouchers. The model generates recurring commission revenue on every top-up transaction, with limited customer acquisition cost once a meter is installed.

    Transaction volumes reached ZAR 465m ($27m) in the second quarter alone. The business benefits from structural tailwinds: South Africa’s electricity crisis has made prepaid metering attractive to landlords seeking to avoid billing disputes, and the shift to cost-reflective electricity pricing has increased the value of transactions flowing through the platform.

    Lesaka hasn’t disclosed what it paid for Recharger, but the business is now contributing positive cash flow and requires minimal ongoing capex beyond meter installations, which are typically funded by landlords.

    The contrast with Adumo is instructive. Recharger operates in a defined niche with high switching costs and recurring revenue. Adumo competes in merchant acquiring — a commoditised market with multiple providers, margin pressure from card schemes, and ongoing technology investment requirements.

    The Bank Zero impasse

    Lesaka’s third acquisition remains stuck. The company signed a transaction implementation agreement for Bank Zero, a digital mutual bank, on 26 June 2025. Seven months later, the deal hasn’t closed.

    The purchase price includes ZAR 100m ($6m) in cash plus performance-linked consideration tied to future metrics. Lesaka has received approval from South Africa’s Competition Commission but is still waiting on the Prudential Authority and the Financial Surveillance Department of the South African Reserve Bank.

    Mutual banks occupy an unusual position in South African banking regulation. Unlike commercial banks, which are owned by shareholders, mutual banks are owned by depositors. That structure complicates change-of-control transactions because it requires converting depositor ownership into a shareholding model — a process that involves legal restructuring and regulatory oversight.

    Bank Zero was founded in 2018 as a mobile-first challenger targeting younger consumers excluded from traditional banking. But it remains small. Lesaka hasn’t disclosed customer numbers or deposit balances, and Bank Zero’s financial statements aren’t publicly available.

    The strategic rationale appears to centre on licensing and infrastructure. Acquiring Bank Zero would give Lesaka a full banking licence, allowing it to offer current accounts, lending, and other products under direct regulatory supervision rather than through partnerships. The company already operates a large-scale payments business and has been expanding into consumer lending and insurance; a banking licence would consolidate those activities under one regulated entity.

    But the approval timeline has stretched beyond initial expectations. Prudential reviews for bank acquisitions typically examine capital adequacy, governance structures, and the financial strength of incoming shareholders. Lesaka’s distributed operations across South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia — combined with its Nasdaq listing and history of internal control issues — likely add complexity to the review process.

    The company has spent $0.1m on Bank Zero transaction costs during the six-month period and has accrued another $0.3m for future expenses. Management expects to incur an additional $0.2m before closing — if closing occurs.

    The consolidation thesis under pressure

    Lesaka’s M&A activity reflects a broader pattern in African fintech. As mobile money and instant payments erode traditional card-acquiring margins, payments companies are pursuing horizontal integration to achieve scale, then pivoting into adjacent products — lending, insurance, utilities — that offer higher returns.

    The logic rests on two assumptions: first, that consolidation will reduce costs through shared infrastructure and back-office elimination; second, that a larger customer base will improve cross-sell economics for higher-margin products.

    Lesaka’s results challenge both assumptions. Despite absorbing Adumo, the Merchant division’s cost structure hasn’t meaningfully improved. Selling, general, and administrative expenses across the group rose 27% to $80m, with management citing “the inclusion of Adumo” alongside inflation and higher headcount.

    Depreciation and amortisation jumped 83% to $26.5m, driven by intangible assets from the acquisitions and a decision to shorten the useful life of certain brand assets — an accounting change that accelerated amortisation by $6.3m during the period. These costs will persist for several years, offsetting any operational efficiencies.

    The cross-sell thesis is working better, but not through acquisition. Lesaka’s Consumer division — which wasn’t involved in the recent M&A — posted the strongest results. Revenue rose 45% to $63.7m, and adjusted EBITDA increased 104% to $17.8m, driven by lending and insurance products sold to existing transactional account holders.

    The Consumer business now serves 2.0m active customers, up 21% year-on-year, with product penetration rates improving across the board. The lending book has grown to ZAR 1.5bn ($89m) in gross receivables, more than doubling from ZAR 709m a year earlier. Insurance policies in force reached 641,000, up 29%.

    Control weaknesses and integration risks

    Lesaka disclosed material weaknesses in its internal controls over financial reporting in its prior fiscal year. Those weaknesses remain unresolved as of December 2025.

    The issues span multiple areas: insufficient risk assessment procedures, inadequate IT general controls, weaknesses in business combination accounting, and revenue recognition errors. The company has implemented a remediation plan that includes additional hiring, enhanced training, and closer collaboration with external auditors, but management acknowledges the process is ongoing.

    The control environment matters for M&A execution. One weakness specifically cited by management relates to “insufficient risk assessments and ineffective design and implementation of controls over the purchase price allocation of the Adumo and Recharger acquisitions.”

    Purchase price allocation determines how much of an acquisition’s cost gets assigned to tangible assets, intangible assets, and goodwill. Errors in that allocation can lead to misstated depreciation and amortisation, which in turn affect reported profitability and tax positions.

    Lesaka recorded $211.9m in goodwill as of December 2025, up from $199.4m six months earlier. It also carries $131.7m in net intangible assets, including $96.3m in software and technology, $34.4m in customer relationships, and $1.0m in brands and trademarks. A significant portion of those intangibles stems from Adumo and Recharger.

    The company tests goodwill for impairment annually. If the acquired businesses underperform, those tests could result in write-downs that would crystallise losses from the deals.

    What the data reveals

    Six months isn’t enough time to judge an acquisition strategy definitively. Integration takes quarters, not weeks, and cost synergies typically materialise 12 to 18 months after closing.

    But the early data suggests Lesaka’s consolidation bet faces structural headwinds that time alone won’t solve.

    Adumo has added scale without adding profitability. The Merchant division processed more transactions and served more customers, but margin expansion has been negligible. The business still competes in a crowded market where pricing power is limited and technology requirements are high.

    Recharger, by contrast, occupies a defensible niche with recurring revenue and low customer acquisition costs. But the addressable market is constrained. There are only so many multi-tenant buildings in South African metros, and electrification rates outside urban areas remain low.

    Bank Zero, if it closes, would provide strategic infrastructure but also regulatory complexity and capital requirements. Digital banks require ongoing investment in product development and customer acquisition, and profitability timelines for challenger banks — even in developed markets — typically extend three to five years from launch.

    The larger question is whether horizontal consolidation makes sense in a market where the core payments business is commoditising. Lesaka is effectively using M&A to assemble a portfolio of adjacencies — lending, insurance, utilities, banking — rather than to dominate a single category.

    That approach can work if the customer base is large enough and sticky enough to support cross-sell at scale. Lesaka’s Consumer division demonstrates that dynamic: 2.0m active customers with improving product penetration and rising EBITDA margins.

    But the Consumer business wasn’t built through acquisition. It was built through patient organic expansion into products adjacent to its core payments rails.

    The Merchant division, by contrast, is trying to buy its way to relevance in a market that may not reward consolidation. Lesaka now has more point-of-sale devices, more merchant relationships, and more transaction volume. What it doesn’t have — at least not yet — is a margin structure that justifies the capital deployed.

    The company’s next results, due in May 2026, will reveal whether the operational integration of Adumo begins to close that gap, or whether the early pattern persists: revenue growth without profit improvement, scale without pricing power, and M&A that adds complexity faster than it adds value.

    Disclosure: Financial data is sourced from Lesaka’s SEC filings for the quarter ended 31 December 2025. Amounts are reported in US dollars unless otherwise stated; comparisons in South African rand use average exchange rates disclosed in company filings.

    ‘Don’t Wait for a Cash Crunch’: The $70M Debt Playbook from Lula’s Trevor Gosling

    In 2025, African tech reached a tipping point. For the first time, debt financing across the continent’s startup ecosystem surpassed the $1 billion mark, signaling a fundamental shift in how founders capitalize their balance sheets.

    As equity becomes more expensive and harder to secure, many are looking toward debt — not as a last resort, but as a strategic tool. One of the primary architects of this shift is Trevor Gosling, co-founder of the South African fintech Lula.

    Earlier this week, Lula announced a R340m ($21m) local-currency facility from the Dutch development bank, FMO. This raise brings the company’s recent lending firepower to over $70m, following a $35m Series B in 2023, a $10m IFC loan in late 2025 and a $4.7 million social bond raise in 2022. 

    Launch Base Africa caught up with Gosling, whose approach to debt is clinical. His advice for founders is blunt: most are doing it wrong.

    1. Debt is not ‘Equity in Disguise’

    The most common error, according to Gosling, is a failure to distinguish between the psychology of a VC and a lender.

    “The biggest mistake founders make with debt is treating it like equity with a different label,” Gosling tells Launch Base Africa. “Debt is a product with very specific expectations around predictability, discipline, and downside protection. You need to approach it with that mindset.”

    While equity investors buy into a 10-year vision of what a company could become, lenders are focused on the immediate reality of what the company is.

    The two questions every founder must answer:

    • Why are you raising this debt?
    • What specific cash flows will service it?

    “Lenders are not betting on your vision — they’re underwriting your ability to repay under stress,” Gosling explains. “The more you can demonstrate repeatable revenue, strong unit economics, and tight operational control, the more leverage you’ll have in the process.”

    2. The Paradox of Timing: Raise when Strong

    In the startup world, debt is often associated with “bridge rounds” or filling a cash gap when an equity raise stalls. Gosling argues this is the worst possible time to enter the debt market.

    “Raise debt when you don’t urgently need it,” he advises. “If you approach lenders from a position of strength — with runway, data, and options — you’ll secure far better terms than if you’re filling a short-term cash gap.”

    By raising from a position of power, Lula has been able to negotiate terms that prioritize flexibility over speed. Gosling urges founders to invest time upfront in understanding the “boring” parts of the deal: covenants, reporting requirements, and downside scenarios. “Debt can be a powerful accelerant, but only if it’s structured to support the business rather than constrain it,” he says.

    3. Look Past the Interest Rate

    Founders often obsess over the headline interest rate (the cost of capital), but Gosling insists that the “fine print” is where the actual risk — and value — lives.

    • Covenant Flexibility: How much breathing room do you have if growth slows for a quarter?
    • Reporting Intensity: Will the lender’s data requirements overwhelm your finance team?
    • Lender Behavior: How does the firm act when performance deviates from projections?

    “You’re choosing a long-term partner who will be inside your business during both good and difficult periods,” says Gosling. “Ask direct questions about how they’ve worked with companies through downturns or performance volatility — their answers will tell you a lot.”

    Ultimately, he suggests that founders should optimize for trust, transparency, and adaptability, rather than just chasing the lowest interest rate.

    4. The Local Currency Advantage

    For African startups, debt has historically been a double-edged sword. Borrowing in USD or EUR to lend in a local currency like the South African Rand (ZAR) can be disastrous if the local currency devalues, as the cost of repayment spikes in real terms.

    Lula’s latest R340m facility is structured in local currency, a move Gosling calls a “critical enabler.”

    “It eliminates the volatility of exchange rate fluctuations, allowing us to provide stable, predictable, and sustainable lending rates to our customers.”

    By securing ZAR-denominated debt, Lula avoids the high costs of currency hedging, allowing them to maintain margins while keeping loans affordable for small businesses.

    From Lender to Neobank

    Founded in 2014 by Gosling and Neil Welman, Lula (formerly Lulalend) spent a decade perfecting AI-driven credit scoring. While South Africa’s “big four” banks — which dominate the market — often require years of financial history and physical collateral, Lula makes decisions in hours using alternative data.

    However, their latest evolution involves a partnership with Access Bank to launch a neobanking solution. This bundles business accounts with cash-flow management tools.

    Strategic Impact of the FMO Raise:

    • Data Advantage: By controlling the business bank account, Lula sees the daily financial health of a company, reducing lending risk.
    • Social Impact: Under IFC and FMO agreements, Lula is committed to allocating 25% of proceeds to women-owned MSMEs.
    • Financial Inclusion: Targeting “thin-file” borrowers — entrepreneurs with healthy cash flows but limited formal credit histories.

    The Road Ahead

    Lula is operating in a South African economy currently recovering from post-pandemic stagnation. The primary challenge will be maintaining low default rates as they scale into the “informal” or “micro” sectors, where cash flow can be as unpredictable as the weather.

    However, with a cap table including Quona Capital, DEG, and Triodos, and a debt strategy built on “strength rather than desperation,” Lula has provided a blueprint for how the next generation of African tech can scale without selling the farm.

    Nomba’s Canadian Play: Why Nigerian Fintechs are Buying Their Way Out of the Naira Trap

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    Last year, the streets of Lagos were painted yellow. Nomba, the Nigerian fintech once known primarily for its ubiquitous point-of-sale (PoS) terminals, deployed an army of campaigners to distribute flyers, fighting for turf in a market already dominated by giants like Opay and Moniepoint.

    But while the battle for the Nigerian street remains fierce, Nomba’s leadership has spent the last year looking across the Atlantic.

    Nomba has confirmed the acquisition of a licensed Canadian payment service provider and money services business (MSB). The deal, completed in Q2 2025, marks a pivotal shift for the company: it is no longer just a local payment processor, but a cross-border infrastructure provider.

    By investing $2 million into the acquired entity, Nomba is building a direct pipeline between the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and African currencies — a move that allows the startup, and its clients, to bypass the erratic fluctuations of the Nigerian Naira.

    Owning the Rails

    The acquisition allows Nomba to offer local CAD accounts to African businesses, providing near-real-time settlement and reducing reliance on the slow, expensive network of global intermediary banks. According to Nomba, this infrastructure can lower transaction costs by 40–60%.

    While most fintechs chase the consumer remittance market (sending money home to family), Nomba is strictly targeting B2B trade.

    “Cross-border trade payments for African businesses are still built on infrastructure that was never designed for speed or transparency,” Yinka Adewale, CEO of Nomba, said. “Owning regulated infrastructure allows us to remove layers of complexity and give businesses predictable, reliable rails.”

    The strategy is already yielding results. In January 2026, Nomba processed over $3 million through its Canada-Africa corridor, serving clients like Nigerian oil and gas firms that need to bill Canadian partners and receive funds the same day for payroll and operations.

    The “License Rush”: A Nigerian Phenomenon

    Nomba is not alone. Its expansion is part of a broader, aggressive trend where Nigerian fintechs are buying their way into regulatory favor. Between 2025 and early 2026, Nigerian startups accounted for 40% of all tech M&A activity in Africa, despite the country representing only 17% of the continent’s GDP.

    Tech FirmTarget JurisdictionStrategic Value
    NombaConfidential MSBCanada CAD-to-Naira B2B settlement
    MoniepointBancomUK diaspora banking & FCA coverage
    FlutterwaveMonoNigeria open banking & data integration

    Fleeing the Naira

    The underlying driver for this international M&A surge is the fragility of the local environment. By acquiring assets in the UK, Canada, and soon the UAE and Singapore, Nigerian fintechs are effectively “de-risking” their balance sheets.

    Operating in CAD or GBP provides a stability that the Naira cannot offer. It also allows these firms to serve the Nigerian diaspora — an estimated 15 million people who represent a high-income, stable market that traditional Western banks often overlook due to a lack of local credit history.

    Nomba’s next stops are the UAE and Singapore. If successful, it will have built a trade corridor that spans from Kinshasa to the Asian markets, ensuring that while its campaigners may still wear yellow on the streets of Lagos, its capital is safely moving through the world’s most stable financial hubs.

    ‘This Team Gave Everything’: Natalie Dowsett’s 11th-Hour Plea to Save OX Delivers

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    The Short

    • The Crisis: OX Delivers MD Natalie Dowsett has issued a 72-hour ultimatum: find a strategic partner or enter liquidation.
    • The Paradox: The threat comes just over a year after the company announced a massive $163m contract to expand its “Transport-as-a-Service” (TaaS) model across East Africa.
    • The Survival Plan: While the UK entity is embattled, OX Rwanda — its primary operational hub — plans to continue serving its 5,000-strong customer base, though expansion will be crippled without new vehicle production.
    • The Market Context: The news follows the 2025 rescue of Kenyan peer Mobius Motors, highlighting the brutal capital requirements of African automotive hardware.

    For years, OX Delivers was the poster child for “Global Britain” engineering. Its mission was as ambitious as it was logical: ship electric trucks as flat-packs to Rwanda, assemble them locally, and provide an “Uber for potatoes” service to rural farmers.

    The strategy seemed to be working. The company won a spot on TIME’s Best Inventions list, secured millions in UK government grants, and reported $920,000 in revenue for the first ten months of 2024. In late 2024, it signed a landmark $163m franchise deal with OX East Africa to move into Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Burundi.

    But today, the wheels have come off the UK parent company. In a candid call to action, Founder and Managing Director Natalie Dowsett revealed that the business is three days away from insolvency.

    “That sentence sits painfully at odds with what this team has built,” Dowsett said. “Losing that effort, talent, and learning would be a devastating loss.

    The “Hardware Gap”

    OX Delivers isn’t just a truck maker; it’s a logistics operator. By charging farmers per kilogram-kilometer, they lowered the barrier to trade in regions where transport costs can be 14 times higher than in the US. Their Gordon Murray-designed electric truck was touted as being 10 times cheaper to operate than diesel alternatives.

    However, building hardware is notoriously capital-intensive. Even with 80% repeat customers and a growing fleet in Rwanda, the gap between “revenue-generating pilot” and “scaled manufacturer” requires a deep-pocketed institutional backing that has proven elusive in a tightening VC market.

    A familiar story in Nairobi

    OX’s struggles mirror those of Mobius Motors, the Kenyan automaker that nearly collapsed last year. Founded by British entrepreneur Joel Jackson, Mobius faced similar liquidity dry-spells despite a decade of building rugged SUVs for African terrain.

    Mobius was ultimately saved in March 2025 by Silver Box, a Middle Eastern investment firm, which cleared short-term debts and pledged to resume production by July 2025. Silver Box saw value in the “tangible assets” — the Nairobi production facility and the R&D — rather than just the immediate cash flow.

    Dowsett is likely hoping for a similar “Silver Box moment.” The company has engaged FRP Advisory to handle expressions of interest, essentially putting the “exceptional” 40-person engineering team and the proprietary tech platform up for sale or partnership.

    What happens to the “Uber for Potatoes”?

    The immediate impact of a UK liquidation would be felt most acutely in the R&D pipeline. While OX Rwanda intends to keep its tarmac operations running, its ability to reach “off-road” customers depends on the next generation of purpose-built electric trucks. Without the UK engineering hub, the $163m expansion plan effectively hits a dead end.

    For the 5,000 farmers in Rwanda who currently use the app to move goods in hours rather than days, the stakes are more than just financial — it’s a question of whether the “self-reinforcing cycle of economic growth” OX promised can survive the realities of venture capital.

    The Elumelu-Backed Fintech Doubling Down on Nigeria’s Payment Rails

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    Redtech, the Nigerian fintech subsidiary of Tony Elumelu’s Heirs Holdings, has announced it processed $20.6bn (₦30tn) in total transactions during the 2025 financial year.

    The figure represents a more than 100% year-on-year increase from the ₦12tn ($8.2bn) processed in 2024. The growth suggests that Redtech is successfully pivoting from a “captive” service provider for the Heirs Holdings ecosystem into a serious contender in Nigeria’s high-volume enterprise payments market.

    The Key Numbers

    • Total Volume (2025): $20.6bn (₦30tn).
    • Growth: >100% YoY.
    • Primary Driver: RedPay (POS network, merchant collections, and digital channels).
    • Expansion Target: 29 African countries by January 2027.

    Moving beyond the “Family” business

    Founded in 2020, Redtech initially served as the technical backbone for Heirs Holdings’ diversified interests in banking, insurance, and power. However, the 2025 data indicates the company is now finding significant traction with external SMEs and large-scale enterprises.

    While the Nigerian fintech space is notoriously crowded — dominated by players like Moniepoint, OPay, and Flutterwave — Redtech’s strategy appears to lean into the “boring but essential” side of payments: reliability and compliance for regulated sectors.

    By focusing on reducing reconciliation failures and downtime — common pain points in Nigerian banking — Redtech is positioning itself as an infrastructure-first player rather than a pure-play consumer app.

    The “Unfair Advantage”

    Being part of the Heirs Holdings portfolio provides Redtech with a built-in distribution network that many startups lack. The company’s growth has been bolstered by integrations across retail, hospitality, and energy — sectors where its parent company has deep roots.

    “This milestone reflects trust from businesses that rely on us to move money at scale,” says Emmanuel Ojo, CEO of Redtech. “We have built Redtech around durability and regulatory alignment so that SMEs and large enterprises can grow on our rails without worrying about downtime.”

    The Pan-African Roadmap

    Redtech’s ambitions aren’t limited to Lagos. The company has set an aggressive deadline to expand into 29 African countries by early 2027.

    This “Pan-African” playbook mirrors the trajectory of United Bank for Africa (UBA), another Heirs Holdings-linked entity. By leveraging these existing banking footprints, Redtech could bypass some of the high customer-acquisition costs (CAC) that typically hamper fintechs entering new markets.

    What’s Next?

    Redtech hitting the $20bn mark puts it in the “major league” of African processors. However, the next 24 months will be the real test. Moving from a dominant position in Nigeria to a multi-country operation requires navigating 29 different regulatory environments and currency fluctuations.

    If Redtech can successfully export its “resilient infrastructure” model to these markets, it won’t just be a service provider for Heirs Holdings; it will be a legitimate challenger to Africa’s fintech “unicorns.”

    South Africa’s Lula Bags $21M to Double Down on SME Lending

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    While South Africa’s “big four” banks have historically dominated the financial landscape, their appetite for small business risk remains notoriously low. Into this void steps Lula (formerly Lulalend), which has just announced a R340m ($21m) funding injection from the Dutch entrepreneurial development bank, FMO.

    The investment is structured as local currency funding — a strategic move that shields the fintech from the volatility of the South African rand. For Lula, the mission is clear: scale its “lending-as-a-service” and neobanking platform to reach the thousands of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) currently locked out of the formal credit market.

    From Niche Lender to Neobank

    Founded in 2014 by Trevor Gosling and Neil Welman, Lula spent its first decade perfecting a digital-first lending model. Traditional banks often require years of financial statements and physical collateral; Lula uses AI-driven credit scoring and alternative data to provide funding decisions in hours rather than weeks.

    However, the company’s recent evolution is more ambitious. In partnership with Access Bank, it launched “Lula,” a neobanking solution that bundles business accounts with cash-flow management tools and instant credit.

    This latest R340m from FMO follows a busy period of capital raising:

    • 2023: A $35m Series B round led by Lightrock.
    • Late 2025: A $10m local-currency loan from the International Finance Corp (IFC).
    • This week: The FMO facility, which brings its total recent lending firepower to over $60m.

    The FX Advantage

    In the world of African fintech, debt is often a double-edged sword. Borrowing in dollars or euros to lend in local currency can be suicidal if the local currency devalues.

    “Receiving this capital in local currency is a critical enabler,” says CEO Trevor Gosling. “It eliminates the volatility of exchange rate fluctuations, allowing us to provide stable, predictable, and sustainable lending rates to our customers.”

    By securing ZAR-denominated debt, Lula can maintain its margins without passing the cost of currency hedging onto the small business owners it serves.

    Targeting the Underserved

    A significant portion of this new capital is earmarked for impact-driven lending. Under previous agreements with the IFC, Lula committed to allocating 25% of loan proceeds to women-owned MSMEs. The FMO funding is expected to follow a similar trajectory, focusing on:

    • Micro-enterprises: Businesses that often operate informally.
    • Thin-file borrowers: Entrepreneurs with limited credit histories but healthy cash flows.
    • Low-income communities: Driving financial inclusion outside of South Africa’s primary urban hubs.

    What’s Next?

    Lula is navigating a South African economy that is currently clawing its way back from post-pandemic sluggishness. While the “big banks” are slowly digitizing, Lula’s advantage lies in its agility and its “neobank” pivot. By controlling the business bank account, Lula gains deeper insights into an SME’s daily health than a third-party lender ever could.

    The challenge will be maintaining low default rates as they move further down-market into the “informal” or “micro” sectors, where cash flow can be as volatile as the weather. But with a cap table featuring Quona Capital, DEG, and Triodos, Lula has the institutional backing to suggest they’ve cracked the code on SME risk in emerging markets.

    A Sigh of Relief for Kenyan EV Founders as Long-Awaited Policy Lands

    For four years, Kenyan electric vehicle (EV) founders have lived in a state of permanent “coming soon.” They’ve pitched to VCs based on “favourable government tailwinds” that felt more like a light breeze, and lobbied through enough boardroom coffee to power a small fleet of e-motorcycles.

    Yesterday at the KICC in Nairobi, the breeze finally became a gale.

    Transport Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir officially launched the National E-Mobility Policy, a document that EV players are treating less like a regulatory framework and more like a collective “get out of jail free” card. With the sector’s growth hitting a massive 171% in 2025 — reaching nearly 25,000 units — the government has finally decided to codify the chaos.

    The “Green Plate” Fair

    The most visible takeaway from the launch is a stroke of branding genius: green number plates. CS Chirchir has directed that all EVs will now sport distinctive green reflective plates. It is, he says, a “signature” of climate commitment. In reality, it’s a brilliant way to make sure everyone in a Nairobi traffic jam knows exactly who is “saving the planet” while everyone else burns increasingly expensive fossil fuels. For startups like Roam or Ampersand, it’s free marketing; for the Kenyan driver, it’s the ultimate automotive humblebrag.

    The big policy levers

    The new framework introduces several measures that EV companies have been requesting with increasing politeness over the past four years:

    1. Charging infrastructure baked into buildings
     At least 5% of parking spaces in new commercial developments must now be allocated for EV charging infrastructure. 

    2. A dedicated EV electricity tariff
     A specialised off-peak tariff for EV charging aims to make charging cheaper and avoid peak demand pressure. It formalises what many operators were already negotiating case-by-case with Kenya Power.

    3. Fiscal incentives
     The policy supports reduced import duties on EVs, tax relief on batteries and charging equipment, and other fiscal tools to bring down upfront costs — still one of the biggest barriers in a price-sensitive market. Given that batteries usually account for about 40–50% of an EV’s cost, this is the “heavy sigh of relief” the industry actually cares about.

    4. Local assembly and skills development
     The government wants to stimulate domestic assembly and component manufacturing, backed by training through TVET institutions and universities. The ambition is to ensure Kenya does not become purely an EV import showroom.

    The Ghost of Koko Networks

    The timing of this “milestone” is bittersweet. The EV celebration comes just days after Koko Networks, the former darling of Kenya’s climate-tech scene, shuttered its operations.

    Koko’s collapse — a result of a regulatory standoff over carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement — serves as a cold shower for the EV sector. It proves that “alignment” with the government is a fickle thing. One day you’re the poster child for the green transition; the next, you’re a “house of cards” waiting for a Letter of Authorisation that never comes.

    While the EV players are cheering for their new green plates, the Koko 700 — the laid-off employees — are a reminder that in the world of “climate-as-a-service,” the government’s pen can be as much a sword as a shield.

    What’s Next?

    The policy is on the table, but the infrastructure is still on the drawing board. Kenya Power needs to prove it can handle the surge, and the Ministry of Transport needs to prove it won’t pivot to a new “priority” by 2027.

    For now, the sector has what it asked for: a roadmap. Whether the road is paved or full of the usual bureaucratic potholes remains to be seen.

    Nigeria’s Fintech Reality Check: 7 Uncomfortable Truths From the CBN’s New Report

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    If you look at the slide deck of any bullish emerging market VC, Lagos is the promised land. The stats are intoxicating: 11 billion real-time transactions a year, four unicorns, and a permanent seat at the “Big Three” table of African tech.

    But if you look at the operations dashboard of an actual Lagos-based founder, the story is less “hockey stick growth” and more “administrative endurance test.”

    A new, surprisingly candid 34-page report from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) — titled “Shaping the Future of Fintech in Nigeria” — pulls the curtain back on this disconnect. Based on closed-door workshops and surveys with fintech executives, the document reads less like a victory lap and more like a therapy session.

    It paints a picture of an ecosystem that has mastered the art of the launch announcement but is still struggling with the unsexy machinery of execution. Here are the unspoken realities of running a fintech in Africa’s largest economy.

    The “hurry up and wait” product cycle

    In Silicon Valley, the mantra is “move fast and break things.” In Lagos, it appears to be “move fast and wait 12 months for a letter.”

    The most bruising stat from the CBN’s report is this: 37.5% of fintech companies say it takes over a year to bring a new product to market. To be clear, that isn’t the time spent coding or beta testing — that is the time spent waiting for regulatory approval to launch.

    Another 25% of founders report timelines of six to twelve months. Only a fortunate 12.5% can ship in under a quarter.

    For a sector predicated on speed, this is a distinct competitive disadvantage. While a Nigerian startup sits in a regulatory queue, competitors in more agile jurisdictions can iterate a product three times over. Investors, who are already twitchy about African risk, find their patience tested not by market dynamics, but by inbox silence.

    The survey reveals a telling split in sentiment: exactly 50% of respondents find the regulatory environment “supportive,” while the other 50% find it “restrictive.” In a rules-based system, that split shouldn’t exist. It suggests that success in Nigeria often depends less on the clarity of the guidelines and more on which officer picks up your file.

    Policy rich, implementation poor

    To be fair to the Nigerian regulators, they are prolific writers. The country is drowning in frameworks.

    There is a Payments System Vision 2025, comprehensive AML regulations, a Cybersecurity Framework, Open Banking Guidelines, and a Regulatory Sandbox. The problem, as the CBN admits with rare benignity, is that these documents often live better on PDF than in practice.

    Take the Global Standing Instruction (GSI). Launched in 2020, this policy was supposed to be a lender’s dream, allowing them to claw back loan repayments from a defaulter’s accounts at any bank. Five years later, the report describes the rollout as “incomplete,” with full implementation pushed to 2026.

    Or look at Open Banking. The operational guidelines arrived with fanfare in 2023. Yet, the report notes that the API landscape remains fragmented, data-sharing protocols are inconsistent, and universal service standards are effectively non-existent.

    It’s a recurring theme: Nigeria has world-class rules, but third-world enforcement. The Start-up Act was meant to fix multi-agency coordination; the report admits it has “struggled.” The result is a sophisticated legal framework that often feels purely theoretical to the engineers trying to build against it.

    The AI is for the fraudsters, not the chatbots

    While the rest of the world debates whether AI will write our poetry, Nigerian fintechs have a more pragmatic use for it: stopping thieves.

    An overwhelming 87.5% of surveyed companies use AI primarily for fraud detection. Customer service chatbots (62.5%) and credit scoring (37.5%) are distant seconds.

    This isn’t a choice; it’s a tax on innovation. The report bluntly notes that a “significant share” of digital financial crimes are orchestrated by cross-border actors using Nigeria as a proxy. This fraud burden forces startups to divert massive resources — talent, compute power, and capital — away from product development and into digital policing.

    The reputational cost is just as high. Nigeria’s recent stint on the FATF “grey list” strangled cross-border partnerships. While the country was removed from the list in 2023 — a milestone the CBN celebrates — it was largely a remediation of failures rather than a new achievement. For Nigerian founders, “compliance” isn’t a department; it’s the biggest line item on the budget.

    The regulatory alphabet soup

    If you want to run a fintech in Nigeria, you need to be a diplomat as much as a CEO.

    The regulatory landscape is a turf war. The CBN watches the money. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) watches the telcos (who own the Payment Service Banks). The National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) watches the data.

    The friction is palpable. 62.5% of companies are crying out for a “Compliance-as-a-Service” utility — essentially a plea to stop making them report the same data to three different agencies in three different formats.

    The report invites stakeholders to share examples of “egregious regulatory overlap.” It is a polite way of asking, “Who exactly is making your life miserable today?” — an admission that the coordinating bodies currently in place don’t actually know where the friction lies.

    The capital drought hit hard

    The era of easy money is over, and Nigeria is feeling the chill.

    In 2019, Nigerian startups hoovered up 37% of all African funding ($747m). By 2024, despite the global ecosystem growing, Nigeria’s haul dropped to $520m.

    The issue is structural. There is almost no domestic venture capital base. The ecosystem relies on foreign USD, meaning every investment is a gamble on both the startup’s execution and the Naira’s stability. That is a double-risk exposure that scares off all but the bravest capital.

    The industry’s proposed solution? A government-backed fund. nearly 90% of respondents want a fintech-specific growth fund or credit guarantee scheme. The CBN says it can’t launch a VC fund (wisely), but might “convene stakeholders.” In corporate speak, that means a lot of meetings are coming, but the chequebook remains closed for now.

    The financial inclusion paradox

    Nigeria’s fintech narrative is built on “banking the unbanked.” The reality is slightly more awkward.

    Despite a decade of mobile money and agent banking, 26% of Nigerian adults remain financially excluded. In the North, that figure hits 47% — nearly half the population.

    The report highlights a brutal economic truth: serving the poor is expensive. The “cost of last-mile delivery” combined with ultra-low transaction fees makes rural expansion commercially unviable. Founders know this, which is why they stay in Lagos.

    Furthermore, the infrastructure for inclusion — digital identity — is a mess. 37.5% of fintechs cite the lack of credit history or ID as their biggest barrier. The data exists (in the BVN and NIN systems), but accessing it is plagued by downtime, fragmentation, and high API costs. One executive complained about paying a global consultant huge fees just to access Nigerian data that should be a public utility.

    The “Detty December” stress test

    Every December, the Nigerian diaspora returns home, spending surges, and the banking rails melt down.

    The report treats these “Detty December” failures as a case study in resilience. Users face unexplained transaction failures during critical moments, eroding trust. The survey on resilience was split 50/50, but the anecdotes were telling. Settlement limits haven’t been adjusted for inflation in nearly a decade, and stress testing is virtually non-existent.

    The industry’s suggestion? Scheduled maintenance blackouts and real-time dashboards. Basic operational hygiene, in other words, that seems to have been overlooked in the rush to scale.

    The Launch Base Africa take: A moment of clarity?

    The Central Bank of Nigeria deserves credit for this report. It is rare for a regulator to publish a document that essentially lists its own implementation failures alongside industry complaints. It offers validation to every founder who has ever screamed into a pillow after a meeting in Abuja.

    But validation doesn’t pay the payroll.

    The report proposes ten priority policies — sandboxes, single-window regulation, engagement forums. They are the right ideas. But in Nigeria, the gap between a “priority policy” and a working system is often measured in years.

    For investors and founders, the message is clear: The “unspoken” sides of Nigerian fintech are finally being spoken. The question now is whether anyone has the political will to actually fix them.

    Key Takeaways for Investors

    • Patience Premium: Factor in a 12-month delay for any new product launch requiring regulatory approval.
    • Fraud Tech is Key: Due diligence should focus heavily on a startup’s fraud detection stack; it’s mission-critical, not a nice-to-have.
    • The pivot to B2B: With consumer inclusion proving expensive and difficult, expect more pivots toward “Compliance-as-a-Service” and infrastructure plays that solve the regulatory mess for others.
    • Currency Exposure: The lack of domestic capital means reliance on foreign funds will continue, keeping currency risk front and center.

    GoCab Secures $45M to Challenge Moove in the Race for Africa’s Gig-Worker Assets

    While the European mobility sector matures into a battle of margins, a new frontier is tightening its grip on the “drive-to-own” model in emerging markets. London-headquartered GoCab has today announced a $45m funding round ($15m equity, $30m debt) to scale its vehicle-financing platform across West Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.

    The raise comes at a pivotal moment for the sector. As global giants like Uber and Glovo expand their footprints in Africa, the bottleneck remains a lack of vehicle credit for the drivers themselves. GoCab is positioning itself as the financial plumbing for this gig economy, targeting a gap left by traditional banks that view independent couriers as high-risk.

    The Model: Asset-heavy, data-driven

    Founded in 2024 by former investment bankers Azamat Sultan and Hendrick Ketchemen, GoCab’s strategy bypasses the traditional leasing model. Instead of renting vehicles to drivers indefinitely, the company employs a three-year “drive-to-own” structure.

    • Supply Chain: GoCab leverages bulk purchasing power to source vehicles directly from China at low cost.
    • Repayment: Payments are automatically deducted from drivers’ digital wallets on a daily basis (excluding weekends).
    • Maintenance: The “all-in” fee includes insurance and maintenance, removing the shock of lumpy capital expenditures for the driver.

    The company claims this model allows drivers to earn roughly four times the local minimum wage. Once the three-year term concludes, the driver assumes full ownership of the asset — a transition that GoCab argues provides long-term stability in markets like Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, where vehicle ownership is a significant barrier to entry.

    The Competitive Landscape: The Moove Elephant

    GoCab isn’t the only player in this space. It faces stiff competition from Moove, the Uber-backed Nigerian heavyweight that has raised over $250m and is currently valued at approximately $2bn.

    However, GoCab is carving out a niche by focusing on Francophone Africa and other emerging territories where Moove’s presence is lighter. By securing its own debt facilities early, GoCab is attempting to prove it can run a leaner operation with better unit economics than its venture-backed predecessors.

    The Financials: Debt and Shariah Compliance

    The $45m round is structured to fuel an asset-heavy business. The $15m equity portion, co-led by E3 Capital and Janngo Capital with participation from KawiSafi Ventures and Cur8 Capital, provides the operational runway, while the $30m in debt commitments (from Cur8 Capital and others) funds the purchase of the fleet.

    Notably, GoCab is structuring a $60m Shariah-compliant debt facility. This move is strategic; it opens up specific capital pools in the Middle East and Northern Africa, where the company is looking to expand.

    Current Performance Metrics:

    • Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): $17m (after 18 months).
    • Target Revenue: $100m by 2027.
    • Headcount: 120 staff across five countries.
    • Fleet Target: 10,000 active assets within 24 months.

    The Green Pivot

    A significant portion of the new capital is earmarked for electrification. Currently, electric vehicles (EVs) make up 10% of GoCab’s fleet, with a target to reach 50% by the end of 2026. In markets where fuel prices are volatile, the switch to EVs isn’t just an ESG play — it’s a move to protect the net margins of the drivers and, by extension, the reliability of GoCab’s daily repayments.

    The Launch Base Africa Take

    GoCab’s pedigree — led by founders with structured finance backgrounds — suggests a focus on “boring” but essential metrics: default rates, recovery values, and debt-to-equity ratios. In a high-interest-rate environment, the success of this London-based startup will depend less on “changing lives” and more on its ability to manage a massive, depreciating physical fleet across geographically fragmented markets. If they hit their $100m ARR target, they won’t just be a “purpose-led” startup; they’ll be a formidable fintech infrastructure player.

    From 5x Returns to 70% Losses: What VNV’s African Bets Say About Egypt’s Tech Reset

    When VNV Global released its December 2025 portfolio valuations, the Swedish investment firm’s African holdings painted a stark picture of Egypt’s tech ecosystem. At least three of its African bets are Egyptian startup companies, and their performance couldn’t be more different.

    Quick-commerce platform Breadfast, now valued at roughly $403 million following a May 2025 funding round, has delivered a 79% return on VNV’s investment and accounts for two-thirds of the firm’s entire Africa exposure. Meanwhile, healthtech booking service Vezeeta trades at 28 cents on the dollar of VNV’s original investment, and pan-African B2B marketplace Wasoko has lost 59% of its value despite a high-profile merger and strategic pivot to fintech.

    The numbers raise uncomfortable questions about which business models can survive Egypt’s macroeconomic turbulence — and whether the country’s startup scene is as promising as recent funding announcements suggest.

    The Outlier: Breadfast’s Vertical Gamble Pays Off

    Breadfast’s rise to a $403 million valuation represents one of Egypt’s most significant startup success stories. The company’s 31% valuation increase in 2025 alone stands out in a year when most African startups struggled to maintain their marks, let alone grow them.

    The valuation — established through a Series B extension in May 2025 that attracted institutional capital — represents a sharp increase from an implied $308 million at the start of the year and nearly double the approximately $225 million valuation when VNV originally invested.

    The company’s approach defies conventional startup wisdom. Rather than staying asset-light, founders Mostafa Amin, Muhammad Habib, and Abdallah Nofal built a capital-intensive infrastructure: 47 fulfilment centres, 35 coffee shops, seven production facilities, and over 1,000 private-label products among its 7,000 SKUs.

    This vertical integration appears to have insulated Breadfast from Egypt’s supply chain volatility and persistently high inflation. The company now processes over one million orders monthly for approximately 400,000 active users, with the majority of its fulfilment centres operating profitably.

    The model has attracted institutional validation. December brought news of a planned $13 million investment from the International Finance Corporation, following $10 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development earlier in 2025. These multilateral lenders typically conduct extensive due diligence before committing capital, and their backing suggests confidence in Breadfast’s unit economics and growth trajectory.

    At a $403 million valuation, Breadfast has become one of Egypt’s most valuable private tech companies, though it remains well below the billion-dollar marks achieved by some African peers in earlier, more exuberant funding cycles. The valuation appears justified by operational metrics rather than speculative growth projections — a notable departure from the region’s previous funding environment.

    Breadfast is also moving beyond groceries. Through Breadfast Pay, launched with Visa and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, the company aims to become a financial services platform — a familiar playbook for consumer tech companies seeking higher-margin revenue streams in markets with large unbanked populations.

    For VNV, which invested $16.9 million for a 7.5% stake now worth $30.2 million, Breadfast represents 5.1% of its entire portfolio across all markets. That concentration reflects both confidence and risk.

    Wasoko’s Decline and the B2B Question

    The contrast with Wasoko is sharp. VNV’s stake in the Kenyan B2B platform fell another 15% in 2025, extending losses that have erased more than half the original $23.5 million investment. The current fair value: $9.7 million, implying a total company valuation of roughly $293 million for VNV’s 3.3% stake.

    That represents a significant comedown for a company that once commanded substantially higher valuations during Africa’s venture capital boom. The decline reflects broader scepticism about B2B e-commerce models in emerging markets.

    In September, founder Daniel Yu stepped down as CEO after 11 years, announcing plans to relocate to India. The departure followed Wasoko’s merger with Egyptian competitor MaxAB and coincided with an aggressive pivot away from e-commerce logistics toward financial services.

    The shift is telling. Yu acknowledged before leaving that fintech had become “our strongest value driver” after the Egyptian operation generated over $180 million in annual fintech turnover and disbursed more than $20 million in working capital loans with a claimed 99% repayment rate.

    In Morocco, MaxAB-Wasoko has abandoned traditional e-commerce operations entirely to focus exclusively on fintech. The recent acquisition of Cairo-based fintech marketplace Fatura reinforced this direction.

    Yet VNV’s markdown suggests scepticism. B2B e-commerce platforms serving informal retailers face razor-thin margins, fragmented supply chains, and intense competition. The economics appear fundamentally challenged in markets where infrastructure gaps prevent the operational efficiencies that make such models work in developed economies.

    Yu’s exit is part of a pattern across Africa’s first generation of venture-backed companies. Last year, Yoco co-founder Katlego Maphai stepped down in South Africa after a decade, stating bluntly that “the skills and energy needed to start and build a company are not always the same as those required to scale it.” He joined Ghana’s mPharma founder Gregory Rockson who move to board chair after 11 years and layoffs in late 2023. Egypt’s Elmenus replaced 14-year founder Amir Allam with the former head of competitor Talabat.

    Vezeeta: The Slow Climb from Deep Losses

    VNV’s investment in Vezeeta — Egypt’s doctor appointment booking platform — illustrates the difficulty of building sustainable healthtech in emerging markets.

    The company gained 66% in 2025, adding $1.05 million to VNV’s holding. That sounds impressive until you consider the starting point: VNV invested $9.4 million for a 9% stake now worth just $2.6 million. That is to say, The investment remains 72% below its original cost. This means that Vezeeta is a recovering asset from a very low base, not a top performer in absolute terms. It went from being marked at a company valuation of ~$105M down to ~$17.7M at the start of 2025 ($1.59M stake / 9%), before recovering to a ~$29.3M valuation by 2025 year-end. Vezeeta was last valued using a 4.5x revenue multiple based on a September 2022 transaction. That stale pricing, combined with the modest absolute valuation despite the percentage gain, suggests limited investor appetite. The platform faces fragmented competition in Egypt’s healthcare market and has yet to demonstrate clear profitability.

    The recovery is encouraging but insufficient. At current trajectory, it would take several more years of similar growth just to break even on VNV’s original investment.

    What the Portfolio Reveals

    The valuation spread is dramatic: Breadfast at $403 million, Wasoko at approximately $293 million, and Vezeeta at just $29 million. This dispersion illustrates how winner-take-most dynamics play out even within small portfolios in emerging markets.

    That concentration is unusual for venture capital and exposes VNV to both Egypt-specific risk and single-company risk. Currency volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and macroeconomic instability affect all three Egyptian holdings simultaneously.

    The portfolio’s performance suggests a hierarchy of viable models in Egypt’s current environment:

    Asset-heavy consumer platforms with controlled margins (Breadfast at $403 million) are attracting capital and growing valuations. Vertical integration provides defensibility against inflation and supply chain disruption.

    B2B logistics platforms (Wasoko at ~$293 million, down from much higher peaks) struggle with fundamental unit economics and are pivoting desperately to fintech in search of better margins.

    Marketplace models without transaction capture (Vezeeta at $29 million) face long, uncertain paths to profitability in fragmented markets.

    This pattern challenges the narrative around Africa’s tech opportunity. While consumer spending in large urban centres like Cairo supports well-executed models, the infrastructure deficits and fragmented commercial environments that define much of the continent continue to undermine capital-light, high-velocity business models.

    The Geography Gamble

    VNV’s 80% exposure to Egypt reflects a deliberate bet on North Africa’s largest market. Egypt offers population density, urbanisation, and a growing middle class — factors that support consumer-facing businesses.

    But the macro environment remains hostile. Inflation persists, the currency has been unstable, and regulatory frameworks for tech companies remain underdeveloped. The IFC and EBRD backing for Breadfast may signal confidence, or it may reflect these multilateral institutions’ mandate to deploy capital in challenging markets regardless of pure commercial logic.

    Nigeria and Kenya, historically dominant in African venture capital, have seen deal flow slow. Egypt has emerged as an alternative, but VNV’s mixed results suggest the market remains unproven for many business models.

    What Comes Next

    The divergence within VNV’s portfolio mirrors broader questions facing African tech. As venture funding contracts globally and investors demand clearer paths to profitability, the continent’s startups face pressure to prove their models work without endless capital injections.

    Breadfast’s evolution toward fintech via Breadfast Pay follows a familiar pattern: consumer platforms leveraging user bases to cross-sell financial services. Whether this works in Egypt’s regulatory environment and whether the company can maintain operational discipline while expanding geographically will determine if its $30.2 million fair value holds — or grows.

    Wasoko’s fintech pivot represents a more desperate gamble — abandoning a core model that failed to achieve sustainable economics in favor of an adjacent business with different competitive dynamics. The question is whether fintech revenues can reverse the valuation slide or merely slow it. Meanwhile, Vezeeta’s slow recovery may simply extend the timeline before an eventual write-off, unless management can find a path to the scale and profitability that would justify a significantly higher valuation.

    Amidst these African struggles, the “Iraqi surprise” — super-app Baly — offers a rare lesson in capital efficiency. While the market’s attention was fixed on Cairo, Baly quietly became VNV’s most efficient regional performer. On a modest $1 million investment, it has climbed to a $5.3 million fair value, delivering a 5.3x return — the highest Multiple on Invested Capital (MOIC) in the regional portfolio. By maintaining a 1.9x revenue multiple in a less crowded Iraqi market, Baly has effectively outperformed its more expensive Egyptian counterparts on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

    For VNV, the regional portfolio now depends almost entirely on Breadfast’s continued execution and Baly’s lean growth. That’s a precarious position for any investor, but it reflects the reality of investing in emerging markets: a few winners must compensate for numerous losses.

    The lesson from VNV’s portfolio isn’t that Egypt lacks opportunity. It’s that only certain models — capital-intensive, vertically integrated, and focused on dense urban consumers — appear viable under current conditions. As Baly proves, sometimes the best returns are found not in the most hyped hubs, but in frontier markets where a single dollar of venture capital still has room to run.