OPay, the digital payments group processing hundreds of billions of dollars annually, is evaluating a potential listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), according to people familiar with the matter, as it faces growing pushback over plans to execute an initial public offering exclusively in the United States.

The prospective domestic float — which could be announced within weeks — would mark one of the most prominent technology share sales in Nigeria’s capital markets history. However, advisers remain undecided on the exact timing, size, and structure, including whether a local offering would run concurrently with or follow a planned US debut.

The shift in strategy follows pressure from domestic regulators and market participants who question why a business deriving 88.1 per cent of its revenue from Nigeria should list solely offshore. Earlier this month, Temi Popoola, chief executive of NGX Group, met President Bola Tinubu to advocate for policies that would encourage or require high-growth companies generating substantial domestic profits to list locally.

Mr Popoola specifically cited OPay and its primary competitor, PalmPay, warning that the migration of top-tier technology firms to foreign bourses threatens to hollow out Nigeria’s equity market. Proponents of domestic listings argue that local institutional and retail investors should be given the opportunity to participate in the wealth created by platforms that dominate the country’s payment infrastructure.

Financial surge and offshore ambitions

OPay’s market footprint has expanded rapidly alongside Nigeria’s shift toward cashless transactions. In 2025, the company processed $358bn in gross transaction value, up 115 per cent year on year. Revenue surged 161 per cent to $536.3m, driven by payment processing scale and higher-margin credit products.

The company also swung to an operating profit of $107.1m, reversing an operating loss of $35.1m the previous year, with operating margins reaching approximately 20 per cent.

To prepare for its US debut, OPay mandated Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and JPMorgan Chase to target a valuation of roughly $4bn. That figure is double the $2bn valuation established during its $400m funding round led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2 in 2021. Opera Limited, the Norwegian-listed software firm that incubated OPay and holds a 9.5 per cent stake, assigned an 85 per cent probability to an OPay public listing within two years in recent regulatory filings.

Market constraints and currency mismatch

Despite domestic enthusiasm for an NGX listing, analysts point to practical constraints. The total equity market capitalisation of the NGX stands at roughly $40bn, with thin daily trading liquidity that could make pricing and supporting a $4bn growth-stage technology asset challenging. While local pension assets total approximately $30bn, domestic institutional fund managers have limited historical experience pricing unproven tech equities.

However, an exclusive offshore listing carries its own operational risks. A fundamental challenge for OPay on Wall Street is the currency mismatch between its earnings and reporting metrics. Because the vast majority of OPay’s cash flows are generated in Nigerian naira, periodic local currency devaluations could erode reported dollar-denominated earnings, creating volatility for foreign investors.

Advocates of a dual-listing structure note that a domestic tranche would align part of its share capital with its operational revenue base while building regulatory goodwill.

Regional competitive dynamics

OPay’s deliberations occur as rival African payment platforms chart divergent capital-raising routes. PalmPay, backed by MediaTek and Transsion Holdings, is pursuing an initial public offering in Hong Kong targeting a valuation above $1bn. PalmPay achieved profitability in 2025 after revenue more than doubled to $128m in 2024.

Meanwhile, other prominent African technology firms — including Flutterwave, Moniepoint, and Interswitch — remain subjects of ongoing listing speculation, with several previously evaluating US bourses.

Whether OPay elects a dual listing or maintains a primary US focus with a secondary local tranche, its choice will serve as a bellwether for how African technology companies navigate the trade-off between foreign capital valuation and domestic regulatory integration.