Norwegian-listed browser group Opera assigns an 85% probability to a listing of Nigerian fintech OPay within two years, according to a securities filing that reveals an increasingly bullish stance on one of Africa’s most valuable private technology companies.

The disclosure shows that Oslo-based Opera has modelled the valuation of its 9.5% stake in OPay on the assumption that an initial public offering is by far the most likely exit outcome for the payments provider. The filing gives a listing an 85% weighting, compared with 10% for a trade sale, 2.5% for dissolution and 2.5% for redemption.

The model used to calculate the $294.6 million carried value of Opera’s holding also assumes that a liquidity event will occur within nine months to two years and applies a discount rate of 18.5% accompanied by a 10% discount for lack of marketability.

Based on Opera’s 9.5% ownership, the implied total valuation of OPay stands at approximately $3.1 billion — a significant increase from the $2.7 billion implied by the 2024 carrying value of $258.3 million.

Opera is careful to point out that the 85% probability is not a market forecast but a valuation input. “The fair value of the OPay investment is highly uncertain and may result in material volatility in our results of operations,” the company warns in the filing. “The valuation depends on these inputs, the estimated fair value of the investment is inherently uncertain and subject to change as new information becomes available.”

From network to payments powerhouse

OPay began life inside Opera in 2018, initially as a mobile wallet and ride-hailing service before quickly pivoting to payments. The Singapore-headquartered digital banking platform, which is focused on emerging markets and operates out of Nigeria, now counts more than 60 million users in Nigeria alone, according to TechPoint data from 2026, while TechNext reported that by mid-2025 the platform had about 10 million daily active users and roughly $12bn in monthly transaction volume.

The company processes payments for merchants, agents and individuals and has expanded into lending, savings and insurance products. It also operates point-of-sale services for agents and acquiring services for merchants, building a physical distribution network to complement its digital offerings.

Investors have taken note. OPay’s most recent reported valuation from external fundraising stands at $2bn after a $400mn Series C round led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2 in 2021. However, Opera’s latest carrying value implies that OPay’s equity has since appreciated to $3.1bn — a more than 50% increase from the 2021 round level. For Opera, which incubated OPay from scratch, this represents a paper return of well over 2,000%.

The fintech stake now looms larger than any other single asset on Opera’s balance sheet, exceeding the $258.3mn value recorded at the end of 2024 and representing about 26% of Opera’s total equity.

Signs of IPO readiness

Opera’s internal valuation inputs are not the only indicators of OPay’s public market ambitions. The Nigerian-headquartered digital payments and banking platform has shown clear signs of IPO readiness, most notably through the recent recruitment of a high-calibre global management team with extensive public company experience.

In December 2025, OPay appointed a new global core management team including James Zhou as Executive Chairman, Lars Boilesen as Co-CEO, and James Perry as CFO. Zhou, formerly CEO of OPay, moved to the Executive Chairman role to lead global strategic planning. Boilesen, the former CEO of Opera Software, has been tasked with driving international market expansion and regulatory communication — classic pre-IPO positioning to build credibility with global investors and regulators.

Perry, a former Managing Director at Citigroup with over 25 years of investment banking experience, is responsible for financial strategy, capital management, and investor relations. His entire professional background is in navigating public markets, a skill set typically sought only when a company is preparing to list.

Industry analysts point to these hires as a clear signal of intent. By bringing in a former Opera CEO and a Citi investment banker to lead financial strategy, OPay has signalled that it is building the operational and financial skeletons required for a public listing.

OPay operates in a competitive and increasingly regulated market. Nigeria’s central bank tightened rules for agent banking in early 2026, forcing point-of-sale operators to work with only one financial institution — a change that OPay has positioned itself to capitalise on. The company has been expanding its physical footprint, opening a new office in Jos in March 2026 and signing a partnership with Mastercard to widen digital commerce access across the Middle East and Africa.

But competition is fierce. PalmPay, which some industry estimates say processes as many as 15 million daily transactions, has a valuation of about $850mn. Moniepoint, another major player, processed more than one billion transactions per month in early 2025. Together, OPay and PalmPay control the majority of Nigeria’s mobile money segment, according to industry data.

A successful OPay IPO would mark a watershed moment for African fintech. The continent saw a funding slowdown in 2025, so an OPay exit could reopen wallets for peers in payments, remittances, lending, and embedded finance. It would be the largest technology listing to emerge from Nigeria, potentially surpassing the market debuts of companies like Flutterwave.

Fair value and the 85% question

The aggressive 85% IPO probability embedded in Opera’s valuation model is not mirrored in any formal announcement from OPay itself. As of April 2026, no SEC filing or public statement from the fintech has confirmed an IPO timeline. Industry observers have speculated about a US listing, with some suggesting a timeframe of nine to 15 months, but nothing official has been confirmed.

The gap between Opera’s internal modelling and external reality creates a clear risk for shareholders in the browser company. Any reduction in the assumed IPO probability, or any lengthening of the expected time to exit, would trigger a downward fair-value adjustment — and that adjustment would flow directly through Opera’s profit and loss statement, creating earnings volatility irrespective of how the underlying browser business performs.

Opera recognised a $36.3 million unrealised fair-value gain on its OPay stake in 2025, down from an $89.8 million gain in 2023 but still sufficient to materially inflate reported net income. The company’s adjusted net income for 2025, which excludes such gains, was $102.1 million — compared with reported net income of $108.3 million. In other words, without the OPay uplift, Opera’s earnings would have been roughly 6% lower.

A bet worth watching

The 85% IPO probability may turn out to be prescient, but it also sets a high bar. If OPay does not go public within the assumed two-year window, or if market conditions reduce its attainable valuation, Opera’s financials may take a hit.

In the meantime, Opera’s core business continues to perform well. The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $614.8 million, a 28% year-on-year increase, and unveiled a new $300 million share repurchase programme in February 2026. But it is the OPay bet — ambitious, complex and inherently uncertain — that increasingly defines the narrative around this hybrid software-and-fintech company.